Midterms 2026

This dashboard shows what the prediction markets say, updated every minute: the chance that Democrats or Republicans control the House and the Senate, the seats each party is expected to hold, and every Senate and governor race on the map. Markets are bets on what will happen, not results: a race is decided when the votes are counted and called.

All 435 House seats are up, and 218 is a majority. In the Senate, 35 of the 100 seats are up in 2026 (33 regular seats and specials in Ohio and Florida). A party needs 51 seats, or 50 plus the Vice President’s tie-breaking vote: with JD Vance as Vice President, Republicans need 50 and Democrats 51.

Each race has its own market. The dashboard adds up every race’s odds: a seat the market gives 70% to the Democrats counts as 0.7 of a Democratic seat. In the Senate, the 65 seats not up this year are added as they stand (34 that caucus with the Democrats, including the independents Angus King and Bernie Sanders, and 31 Republicans). Where a party has nobody on the ballot, such as a California district with two Democrats, its price is left out.

From Polymarket’s prediction markets, read once a minute from its public order book. The price of a market is read as the chance the market gives it: a price of 0.72 is 72%. Biggest moves lists the races whose odds changed most in the last 24 hours, by Polymarket’s own 24-hour change, as the side that gained and by how many percentage points. The scenarios (a blue wave, a 50–50 Senate, a recount, Alaska still counting in January) are markets too, each with its own rules.

It is the dashboard’s verdict on each scenario, for whoever is watching. Pick your side at the top (blue, red or both) and the same numbers give you your verdict. A scenario nobody wants, like a recount, is bad news for everyone.

Yes. Open it on a TV or a laptop and press Full screen, and it cycles through the scenarios by itself all night. On an Android tablet, iPad or iPhone, HAkiosk shows it full screen and keeps it there. In any kiosk browser, add ?kiosk=1 to the address, and ?side=blue or ?side=red to pick a side.